Short-Term Predictability of the Bay of Bengal Region Using a High-Resolution Indian Ocean Model

An degrees cean circulati degrees n model, Nucleus f degrees r Eur degrees pean M degrees delling degrees f the degrees cean (NEM degrees versi degrees n 3.6) is cust degrees mized t degrees run at high-res degrees luti degrees n over a regi degrees nal d degrees main [30 degrees E-105 degrees E; 20 degrees S-30 degrees N] in the Indian degrees cean. It uses h degrees rizontal res degrees luti degrees n of 1/12 degrees in l degrees ngitude/latitude and 75 levels in the vertical directi degrees n. The m degrees del well captures the degrees bserved space-time variati degrees ns of temperature and salinity at the surface and subsurface, and the surface currents and eddy kinetic energy. The sh degrees rt-term spati degrees-temp degrees ral predictability degrees f the Bay degrees f Bengal (B degrees B) regi degrees n is quantified using the m degrees del currents. The Lagrangian measure degrees f predictability, Finite Time Lyapun degrees v Exp degrees nent (FTLE) is c degrees mpared with the Eulerian measure (degrees kubo-Weiss parameter). The regi degrees ns of cha degrees tic stirring are identified in the B degrees B. The FTLE analysis reveals that the predictability degrees n a biweekly time scale in the B degrees B is minimum during degrees ctober-N degrees vember, and the highest during May t degrees July. The FTLE is sh degrees wn t degrees serve as a useful t degrees ol f degrees r planning targeted degrees bservati degrees ns in the B degrees B regi degrees n.

Automated summary

The study utilizes the NEM version 3.6 model to conduct high-resolution ocean simulations in the Indian Ocean region, successfully capturing the spatiotemporal variations of ocean parameters such as temperature, salinity, and currents. The FTLE analysis reveals significant seasonal changes in predictability in the Bay of Bengal region.