Cooling the buildings - past, present and future

Cooling of buildings currently represents a considerable fraction of the total energy consumption in the world. Global and local climate change in combination with the projected population increase and economic development is expected to increase tremendously the future cooling energy demand of buildings and make it the dominant energy component. The present paper aims to present and discuss the details of the framework which defines the present and future cooling energy consumption of the building sector. The more recent quantitative and qualitative data concerning the penetration of air conditioning around the world are presented and analyzed. The main technological, economic, environmental and social drivers that determine the market penetration of air conditioning are identified and their impact is investigated. The potential future evolution of the main parameters that define the cooling energy consumption and in particular climate change, the population increase, income growth, potential technological improvements and the main socioeconomic drivers are investigated and existing forecasts are presented. Proposed methodologies to predict the future cooling energy consumption of the building sector are reported and discussed, while existing estimates and predictions regarding the future cooling energy consumption of individual buildings as well as of the total building sector are documented, evaluated and analyzed. Based on the explored inputs and forecasts, a model to predict the future cooling energy consumption of both the residential and commercial sector is developed. Three scenarios based on low, average and high future development, compared to the current development, are created and the range of the expected cooling energy demand in 2050 is predicted under various boundary assumptions. It is calculated that the average cooling energy demand of the residential and commercial buildings in 2050, will increase up to 750% and 275% respectively. (C) 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.