Effects of Warming and Drought on the Vegetation and Plant Diversity in the Amazon Basin

Climate change is strong in the Amazon basin. Climate models consistently predict widespread warmer and drier conditions by the end of the 21st century. As a consequence, water stress will increase throughout the region. We here review current understanding of the impact of climate change on forests' distribution patterns, species diversity and ecosystem functioning of lowland rainforests in the Amazon basin. We reviewed 192 studies that provide empirical evidence, historical information and theoretical models. Over millions of years rainforests expansions and contractions have been accompanied by changes in the diversity and productivity of forests. In the future, drought will produce forest contractions along the forest edges and the savanna ecotone, causing an extensive savannization, particularly in the east. In terms of diversity, warming will reduce plant species survival by decreasing their productivity, but extinctions may also occur as a result of vegetation disequilibrium, as many plants, dispersal and pollinator species will fail to track changing climate; mild drought kills understory trees and severe drought may eliminate canopy trees as well. Severe droughts will thus produce directional changes in species composition, although these shifts may vary among forests on different soil types. In terms of ecosystem functioning, droughts will reduce root growth and standing biomass and may shift the Amazonian forest from being CO2 sinks to become CO2 sources. Physiological and ecological responses to warming and the feedback between vegetation and climate are still not completely understood. In particular, experimental assays that allow direct conclusions on the response of Amazonian plants to the predicted climatic conditions are needed. Such studies could make possible more reliable estimates of future climatic and vegetation responses.