Journal
ENERGY
Volume 104, Issue -, Pages 184-198Publisher
PERGAMON-ELSEVIER SCIENCE LTD
DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2016.03.070
Keywords
Short-term load forecasting; Electricity load; State-space models; Lasso
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Funding
- Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research [25330044] Funding Source: KAKEN
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This paper proposes a novel framework for modeling electricity loads; it can be used for both forecasting and analysis. The framework combines the EnKF (ensemble Kalman filter) technique with shrinkage/multiple regression methods. First, SSMs (state-space models) are used to model the load structure, and then the EnKF is used for the estimation. Next, shrinkage/multiple linear regression methods are used to further enhance accuracy. The EnKF allows for the modeling of nonlinear systems in the SSMs, and this gives it great flexibility and detailed analytical information, such as the temperature response rate. We show that the forecasting accuracy of the proposed models is significantly better than that of the current state-of-the-art models, and this method also provides detailed analytical information. (C) 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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