Intraregional propagation of Covid-19 cases in Para, Brazil: assessment of isolation regime to lockdown

Due to the high incidence of COVID-19 case numbers internationally, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared a Public Health Emergency of global relevance, advising countries to follow protocols to combat pandemic advance through actions that can reduce spread and consequently avoid a collapse in the local health system. This study aimed to evaluate the dynamics of the evolution of new community cases, and mortality records of COVID-19 in the State of Para, which has a subtropical climate with temperatures between 20 and 35 degrees C, after the implementation of social distancing by quarantine and adoption of lockdown. The follow-up was carried out by the daily data from the technical bulletins provided by the State of Para Public Health Secretary (SESPA). On 18 March 2020, Para notified the first case of COVID-19. After 7 weeks, the number of confirmed cases reached 4756 with 375 deaths. The results show it took 49 days for 81% of the 144 states municipalities, distributed over an area of approximately 1 248 000 km(2) to register COVID-19 cases. Temperature variations between 24.5 and 33.1 degrees C did not promote the decline in the new infections curve. The association between social isolation, quarantine and lockdown as an action to contain the infection was effective in reducing the region's new cases registration of COVID-19 in the short-term. However, short periods of lockdown may have promoted the virus spread among peripheral municipalities of the capital, as well as to inland regions.

Automated summary

Due to the high incidence of COVID-19 cases globally, WHO declared a Public Health Emergency and advised countries to combat the pandemic to prevent a collapse in local health systems. The study in Para evaluated the dynamics of new community cases and mortality records of COVID-19 after social distancing measures were implemented, showing a temporary reduction in new cases but possible spread during short periods of lockdown.