Journal
ECOLOGICAL INDICATORS
Volume 122, Issue -, Pages -Publisher
ELSEVIER
DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolind.2020.107232
Keywords
Water resource carrying capacity; System dynamics model; Improved fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method; Analytic hierarchy process; Scenario simulation
Categories
Funding
- National Natural Science Foundation of China [41572216]
- project for China Geological Survey [DD20190340]
- Jilin Province Geological Prospecting Fund [2018-13]
- special project for provincial school co-construction plan [SXGJQY2017-6]
- Key Research and Development Program of Shaanxi Province [2017ZDCXL-SF-03-01-01]
Ask authors/readers for more resources
This study proposes an improved method for assessing water resource carrying capacity by combining fuzzy comprehensive evaluation and system dynamics modeling, allowing for dynamic calculations under different social development scenarios. The results suggest that by changing production modes and economic proportions, water resource carrying capacity can be improved for steady economic and social growth in the future.
Water resource carrying capacity describes the relationship between different systems such as the socioeconomic, water environment, and water resources systems. Recent studies tend to focus on the qualitative description of water resource carrying capacity, with a lack of quantitative research on the topic. This study proposes an improved water resource carrying capacity assessment method based on combining the improved fuzzy comprehensive evaluation and the system dynamics model, enabling the quantitative and qualitative measurement of water resource carrying capacity. This method can dynamically compute the water resource carrying capacity under different social development scenarios through the feedback regulation and system simulation of social economy-water resources and the water environment interactions. A comprehensive assessment of trends from six scenarios between 2018 and 2025 was conducted, based on scenarios designed for different purposes. The results indicate that if the current development model is adopted, the water resource carrying capacity will continue to decline and remain at a low level of normal carrying (0.431 in 2025). However, the water resource carrying capacity in Changchun may improve by changing the production mode of the national economy and adjusting the proportion of the economy. Rationally allocating water resources and strengthening water ecological protections can significantly increase the water resource carrying capacity and maintain it at positive carrying, while maintaining steady economic and social growth.
Authors
I am an author on this paper
Click your name to claim this paper and add it to your profile.
Reviews
Recommended
No Data Available