Development tendency analysis for the water resource carrying capacity based on system dynamics model and the improved fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method in the Changchun city, China

Water resource carrying capacity describes the relationship between different systems such as the socioeconomic, water environment, and water resources systems. Recent studies tend to focus on the qualitative description of water resource carrying capacity, with a lack of quantitative research on the topic. This study proposes an improved water resource carrying capacity assessment method based on combining the improved fuzzy comprehensive evaluation and the system dynamics model, enabling the quantitative and qualitative measurement of water resource carrying capacity. This method can dynamically compute the water resource carrying capacity under different social development scenarios through the feedback regulation and system simulation of social economy-water resources and the water environment interactions. A comprehensive assessment of trends from six scenarios between 2018 and 2025 was conducted, based on scenarios designed for different purposes. The results indicate that if the current development model is adopted, the water resource carrying capacity will continue to decline and remain at a low level of normal carrying (0.431 in 2025). However, the water resource carrying capacity in Changchun may improve by changing the production mode of the national economy and adjusting the proportion of the economy. Rationally allocating water resources and strengthening water ecological protections can significantly increase the water resource carrying capacity and maintain it at positive carrying, while maintaining steady economic and social growth.

Automated summary

This study proposes an improved method for assessing water resource carrying capacity by combining fuzzy comprehensive evaluation and system dynamics modeling, allowing for dynamic calculations under different social development scenarios. The results suggest that by changing production modes and economic proportions, water resource carrying capacity can be improved for steady economic and social growth in the future.