An overview of the inequality in China's carbon intensity 1997-2016: a Theil index decomposition analysis

Although China has experienced an overall decline in CO2 emissions intensity from 2009 to 2016, the intensity from one province to another varies considerably. As China seeks to reduce CO2 emissions intensity further, understanding how intensity differs provincially and regionally, as well as why, will be important for developing equitable management strategies. The Kaya-Theil model has been extensively applied to analyze the emission inequality; however, there have been no studies focusing on the inequality in carbon intensity in the different sectors and from different resource types in China. Here, we develop a comprehensive analysis on the inequality in China's carbon intensity from both sectoral and energy perspectives from 1997 to 2016. The Theil index is decomposed into the within-region inequality and between-region inequality based on four economic development strategies. We used the LMDI decomposition analysis to identify the driving factors of the inequality (GDP share, emission coefficients, energy structure, energy intensity and economic structure). We find that after a decline in the inequality from 2003 to 2009, the inequality in the total carbon intensity increased by 28.4% from 2009 to 2016, mainly from an increase in the inequality from the industry sector (+ 53.1%), construction sector (+ 47.6%) and coal (+ 40.6%). The within-region inequality was the main source of the inequality in the carbon intensity, accounting for more than 60% of the inequality of the total carbon intensity from 2009 to 2016. Further decomposition identified the energy intensity disparity as the key driving factor of the carbon intensity inequality, inducing a 26.5% increase of the inequality from 2009 to 2016. Moreover, our results demonstrate how the structural transformation of energy and economic structure impact the inequality in carbon intensity. [GRAPHICS] .

Automated summary

Despite an overall decrease in CO2 emissions intensity in China from 2009 to 2016, there was a significant variation in intensity among provinces. Industry, construction, and coal sectors were the main contributors to the carbon intensity inequality, with intra-regional inequality playing a major role. Energy intensity disparity emerged as the driving factor behind the carbon intensity inequality, highlighting the impact of energy and economic structural transformation.