Climate change extremes and photovoltaic power output

Sustainable development requires climate change mitigation and thereby a fast energy transition to renewables. However, climate change may affect renewable power outputs by enhancing the weather variability and making extreme conditions more frequent. High temperature or clouds, for example, can lead to poorer photovoltaic (PV) power outputs. Here, we assess global changes in the frequency of warm and cloudy conditions that lead to very low PV power outputs. Using simulations from global climate models (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), we show that summer days with very low PV power outputs are expected to double in the Arabian Peninsula by mid-century but could be reduced by half in southern Europe over the same period, even under a moderate-emission scenario. Changes for winter, either enhancing or mitigating the PV power intermittency, are projected to be less striking, at least in low- and mid-latitude regions. Our results present valuable information for energy planners to compensate for the effects of future weather variability. Continued carbon-intensive development is unsustainable. This study assesses how cloudiness and weather variability, enhanced by climate change, will affect photovoltaic output, finding that conditions are likely to worsen by mid-century over the Arabian Peninsula while improving over southern Europe.

Automated summary

This study evaluates how cloudiness and weather variability, influenced by climate change, will impact photovoltaic output, showing that by mid-century the situation in the Arabian Peninsula may worsen while improving in southern Europe.