Journal
ROYAL SOCIETY OPEN SCIENCE
Volume 8, Issue 1, Pages -Publisher
ROYAL SOC
DOI: 10.1098/rsos.201566
Keywords
schools; COVID19; expert judgement; transmission
Categories
Funding
- Royal Society education policy unit
- RAMP initiative for COVID-19
- MRC [MR/V038613/1, MC-PC-19067]
- MRC [MC_PC_19067] Funding Source: UKRI
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After primary schools in the UK partially reopened with social distancing measures in place, a structured expert elicitation study found that the mean number of daily contacts significantly decreased for students and staff, indicating successful reduction in infection risk through new risk mitigation strategies.
Personal contacts drive COVID-19 infections. After being closed (23 March 2020) UK primary schools partially re-opened on 1 June 2020 with social distancing and new risk mitigation strategies. We conducted a structured expert elicitation of teachers to quantify primary school contact patterns and how contact rates changed upon re-opening with risk mitigation measures in place. These rates, with uncertainties, were determined using a performance-based algorithm. We report mean number of contacts per day for four cohorts within schools, with associated 90% confidence ranges. Prior to lockdown, younger children (Reception and Year 1) made 15 contacts per day [range 8.35] within school, older children (Year 6) 18 contacts [range 5.55], teaching staff 25 contacts [range 4.55] and non-classroom staff 11 contacts [range 2.27]. After re-opening, the mean number of contacts was reduced by 53% for young children, 62% for older children, 60% for classroom staff and 64% for other staff. Contacts between teaching and non-teaching staff reduced by 80%. The distributions of contacts per person are asymmetric with heavy tail reflecting a few individuals with high contact numbers. Questions on risk mitigation and supplementary structured interviews elucidated how new measures reduced daily contacts in-school and contribute to infection risk reduction.
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