Anthropometric measurements in childhood and prediction of cardiovascular risk factors in adulthood: Kaunas cardiovascular risk cohort study

Background: This study aimed to examine the associations between anthropometric measurements in childhood and adulthood as well as the effect of childhood body mass index (BMI) and skinfold thickness in the prediction of adult cardiovascular risk factors. Methods: The Study subjects were participants of the Kaunas Cardiovascular Risk Cohort study. They were 12-13 years old at the time of the baseline survey (1977) and 48-49 years old in the 35-year follow-up survey (2012, n = 506). In childhood, height, weight, subscapular and triceps skinfold thickness measurements were taken. In 2012, health examination involved measurements of blood pressure (BP), BMI, waist circumference, glucose, lipids, and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (CRP) levels. Logistic regression models were fitted to assess the associations of childhood BMI and skinfold thicknesses as well as BMI gain with cardiovascular risk factors in middle age. All logistic regression models were adjusted for sex, physical activity level, alcohol consumption, smoking and family history of obesity. Results: Over 35 years of follow-up, BMI gain was greater in men than in women. Anthropometric measurements in childhood significantly correlated with values measured in adulthood. The highest correlation coefficients were defined for weight and BMI measurements (in girls r = 0.56 and r = 0.51 respectively; in boys r = 0.45 and r = 0.41 respectively, P < 0.001). Mean values of change in BMI were similar in all quintiles of childhood BMI; however, prevalence of adult obesity increased considerably with increasing quintiles. The risk of adult obesity, metabolic syndrome, hyperglycaemia or type 2 diabetes, and elevated level of high-sensitivity CRP increased with a rise in childhood BMI and skinfold thicknesses, irrespectively of BMI gain from childhood to adulthood. No relationship was found between childhood anthropometric measurements and arterial hypertension, raised level of triglycerides or reduced level of HDL cholesterol. Gain in BMI from childhood to adulthood was associated with increased odds of all above-mentioned risk factors independently of childhood BMI. Conclusions: Risk of metabolic syndrome, hyperglycaemia and diabetes, and elevated high-sensitivity CRP may be affected by childhood BMI and skinfold thickness, while risk of hypertension, raised triglycerides and reduced HDL cholesterol is associated more strongly with BMI gain from childhood to adulthood.