Journal
NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE
Volume 11, Issue 3, Pages -Publisher
NATURE PORTFOLIO
DOI: 10.1038/s41558-020-00972-w
Keywords
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Funding
- National Science Foundation (CAREER Award) [1752729]
- German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) [01LS1711F]
- Strategic Priority Research Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences [XDA20060402]
- National Natural Science Foundation of China [41625001, 51711520317]
- ERTDF of the ERCA, Japan [2RF-1802]
- European Union under the Horizon 2020 EUCP project [776613]
- JPI Climate under the ISIpedia project [690462]
- European Union under the ISIpedia project [690462]
- Uniscientia Foundation
- ETH Zurich Foundation [Fel-45 15-1]
- MEXT [JPMXD0717935457]
- JSPS, Japan [16H06291]
- Directorate For Geosciences
- Division Of Earth Sciences [1752729] Funding Source: National Science Foundation
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Using ensemble hydrological simulations, it is found that climate change could reduce TWS in many regions, especially in the Southern Hemisphere. The decline in TWS translates to an increase in future droughts, highlighting the need for climate change mitigation and improved water resource management and adaptation. By the late twenty-first century, the global land area and population in extreme-to-exceptional TWS drought could more than double.
Terrestrial water storage (TWS) modulates the hydrological cycle and is a key determinant of water availability and an indicator of drought. While historical TWS variations have been increasingly studied, future changes in TWS and the linkages to droughts remain unexamined. Here, using ensemble hydrological simulations, we show that climate change could reduce TWS in many regions, especially those in the Southern Hemisphere. Strong inter-ensemble agreement indicates high confidence in the projected changes that are driven primarily by climate forcing rather than land and water management activities. Declines in TWS translate to increases in future droughts. By the late twenty-first century, the global land area and population in extreme-to-exceptional TWS drought could more than double, each increasing from 3% during 1976-2005 to 7% and 8%, respectively. Our findings highlight the importance of climate change mitigation to avoid adverse TWS impacts and increased droughts, and the need for improved water resource management and adaptation.
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