Journal
NATURE COMMUNICATIONS
Volume 12, Issue 1, Pages -Publisher
NATURE PORTFOLIO
DOI: 10.1038/s41467-020-20324-8
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Funding
- Bareket program in Bar-Ilan University, Israel
- Israel Science Foundation [499/19]
- Bar-Ilan University Data Science Institute grant
- Dangoor Center for Personalized Medicine at Bar-Ilan University
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The alternating quarantine strategy effectively reduces infectious interactions and provides a significant decrease in transmission while maintaining socioeconomic continuity. The weekly alternations also help address the specific challenge of COVID-19 by isolating the majority of infected individuals precisely at the time of their peak infection.
Absent pharmaceutical interventions, social distancing, lock-downs and mobility restrictions remain our prime response in the face of epidemic outbreaks. To ease their potentially devastating socioeconomic consequences, we propose here an alternating quarantine strategy: at every instance, half of the population remains under lockdown while the other half continues to be active - maintaining a routine of weekly succession between activity and quarantine. This regime minimizes infectious interactions, as it allows only half of the population to interact for just half of the time. As a result it provides a dramatic reduction in transmission, comparable to that achieved by a population-wide lockdown, despite sustaining socioeconomic continuity at similar to 50% capacity. The weekly alternations also help address the specific challenge of COVID-19, as their periodicity synchronizes with the natural SARS-CoV-2 disease time-scales, allowing to effectively isolate the majority of infected individuals precisely at the time of their peak infection.
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