Historically unprecedented erosion from Tropical Storm Irene due to high antecedent precipitation

Lacustrine sediment archives indicate that flooding during Tropical Storm Irene (2011) in the north-eastern United States caused the most severe erosion of any flood in the historic record, surpassing that of events with greater precipitation and peak discharges. Compared to deposition from historic floods, Irene's event layer was more massive and more enriched in unweathered upland sediments, indicating an anomalously high incidence of mass wasting and sediment entrainment. Precipitation records indicate that neither precipitation intensity nor total accumulation distinguished Irene from less erosive historic floods. However, cumulative precipitation prior to Irene exceeded the 95th percentile of all days in the record. When allowing for non-stationarity in the twentieth century background precipitation, we find a four-fold increase in the probability of Irene-like conditions, where impacts of extreme rainfall are enhanced by high antecedent precipitation. We conclude that irrespective of increases in extreme precipitation, the risk of highly erosive flooding in the region is increasing due to the influence of wetter baseline conditions associated with a changing climate. Copyright (c) 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.