Land transport development in three integrated scenarios for Germany-Technology options, energy demand and emissions

Today, transportation contributes significantly to greenhouse gas emissions and air pollution. However, new technologies are emerging and existing technologies are being further improved. This article presents the results of a comprehensive study on the development of drive-trains, resulting electricity and fuel consumption as well as emissions of CO2 and selected air pollutants in land transport in Germany. This includes a quantitative assessment of technological potentials and of resulting energy consumption and emissions. The scenario building followed an explorative approach. Only the scenario depicting a consistent transition towards electrified mobility and regulated emissions from the energy system leads to a significant reduction in transport related CO2 emissions. Yet, the analysis shows that it is unlikely that the German emission reduction target in 2030 for the transport sector will be met. Nevertheless, the integrated scenario analysis demonstrates that only a joint de-carbonization of both transport and electricity systems lead to a significant reduction of emissions.

Automated summary

This comprehensive study on land transport in Germany examines the development of drive-trains, electricity and fuel consumption, as well as CO2 and air pollutant emissions. It suggests that only a consistent transition to electrified mobility and regulated emissions from the energy system can significantly reduce transport-related CO2 emissions. However, it is unlikely that Germany will meet its emission reduction target for the transport sector in 2030. Integrated scenario analysis reveals that decarbonization of both transport and electricity systems is essential for a significant reduction in emissions.