Journal
PLOS ONE
Volume 15, Issue 12, Pages -Publisher
PUBLIC LIBRARY SCIENCE
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0243047
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Funding
- Dissertation Research Internship Programme (DRIP), In-Region Postgraduate Scholarship at the International Centre of Insect Physiology and Ecology (icipe), Nairobi, Kenya
- Norwegian Agency for Development Cooperation
- Section for research, innovation, and higher education grant [RAF-3058 KEN-18/0005]
- European Union [DCI-FOOD/2014/346-739]
- Biovision Foundation Switzerland [BV PH-07/2016-2018, DPP_005 (01/2019-12/2021)]
- International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), through the CRP on Resolution of Cryptic Species Complexes of Tephritid Pests to Overcome Constraints to SIT Application and International Trade through icipe
- icipe core - United Kingdom's Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO)
- Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency (Sida)
- Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation (SDC)
- Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia
- Government of the Republic of Kenya
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The peach fruit fly Bactrocera zonata (Saunders) (Diptera: Tephritidae) is an important invasive species causing substantial losses to the horticulture industry worldwide. Despite the severe economic impact caused by this pest in its native and invaded range, information on its potential range expansion under changing climate remains largely unknown. In this study, we employed maximum entropy (MaxEnt) modeling approach to predict the global potential climatic suitability of B. zonata under current climate and four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) for the year 2050. Outputs from MaxEnt were merged with Spatial Production Allocation Model. A natural dispersal model using Gaussian dispersal kernel was developed. The Areas Under Curves generated by MaxEnt were greater than 0.92 for both current and future climate change scenarios, indicating satisfactory performances of the models. Mean temperature of the coldest quarter, precipitation of driest month and temperature seasonality significantly influenced the potential establishment of B. zonata. The models indicated high climatic suitability in tropical and subtropical areas in Asia and Africa, where the species has already been recorded. Suitable areas were predicted in West, East and Central Africa and to a lesser extent in Central and South America. Future climatic scenarios models, RCP 4.5 and 8.5 show significant potential range expansion of B. zonata in Western Sahara, while RCP 4.5 highlighted expansion in Southern Africa. Contrarily, RCP 2.6 showed considerable decrease in B. zonata range expansion in Central, East and West Africa. There was increased climatic suitability of B. zonata in Egypt and Middle East under RCP 6.0. The dispersal model revealed that B. zonata could spread widely within its vicinity with decreasing infestation rates away from the source points. Our findings can help to guide biosecurity agencies in decision-making and serve as an early warning tool to safeguard against the pest invasion into unaffected areas.
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