Journal
JOURNAL OF URBAN PLANNING AND DEVELOPMENT
Volume 146, Issue 4, Pages -Publisher
ASCE-AMER SOC CIVIL ENGINEERS
DOI: 10.1061/(ASCE)UP.1943-5444.0000613
Keywords
Shrinking cities; Land finance; Catalytic effect; Mediation effect model; Correlation
Funding
- Humanities and Social Science Fund of the Ministry of Education of China [19YJCZH154]
- Beijing Social Science Foundation [17GLB030]
- Institute for China Sustainable Urbanization Tsinghua University [TUCSU-K-17013-01]
- First Class Academic Discipline Construction Project of Central University of Finance and Economics [20190807-8]
- Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities [QL18012]
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After approximately 30 years of sustained and rapid development, some Chinese cities have seen urban shrinkage marked by a decreasing population size. Land finance, which is the second public finance of local governments in China, influences urban development through capital and land supply. It is the primary source of funds for urban infrastructure construction and the driving force behind promoting urban boundary expansion. In the context of the overall downturn of domestic land finance, land finance contraction for shrinking cities may accelerate the further decline of population in these cities. This paper investigated 84 key cities across China between 2008 and 2015 and found that (1) the contraction of land finance has heterogeneous impacts on shrinking cities and nonshrinking cities, which, in turn, has significant catalytic effect on population loss in shrinking cities; and (2) the insufficient replenishment of capital caused by the contraction of land finance in shrinking cities has a more significant impact than the insufficient supply of land. Infrastructure investment has a complete mediation effect in this influencing mechanism.
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