Journal
JOURNAL OF THE BRAZILIAN SOCIETY OF MECHANICAL SCIENCES AND ENGINEERING
Volume 43, Issue 1, Pages -Publisher
SPRINGER HEIDELBERG
DOI: 10.1007/s40430-020-02734-3
Keywords
Structural Health Monitoring; Autoregressive model; Extrapolation of AR model; Cubic Splines; Damage progression
Categories
Funding
- Brazilian National Council for Scientific and Technological Development -CNPq [404463/2016-9, 131297/2017-1]
- Research Productivity Scholarship PQ [306526/2019-0]
- Sao Paulo Research Foundation - FAPESP [15/25676-2, 17/15512-8, 2017/15512-8, 2019/19684-3]
- Fundacao para a Ciencia e a Tecnologia (FCT), I.P. [UIDMul-ti044632019 - DREAMS]
- Coordination of Superior Level Staff Improvement - CAPES [88882.433643/201901]
- UNESP [10/2017-PROPG]
- FCT/MCTES (PIDDAC) [UIDB/04708/2020, UIDP/04708/2020]
- EPSRC [EP/J016942/1, EP/K003836/2] Funding Source: UKRI
- Fundacao de Amparo a Pesquisa do Estado de Sao Paulo (FAPESP) [17/15512-8] Funding Source: FAPESP
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This paper introduces a new strategy to predict the progression of damage indices using Autoregressive models with piecewise cubic splines, allowing extrapolation to future structural conditions based on assumptions. The study results show promising outcomes in reproducing future behavior of structures if damages are detected early and not immediately repaired.
The application of Structural Health Monitoring (SHM) methods focuses mainly on its initial levels of the hierarchy of damage identification. The contribution of this paper is to propose a new strategy that allows going further, predicting the progression of the damage indices through the extrapolation of Autoregressive (AR) models with one-step-ahead prediction estimated at early-stage damage conditions using piecewise cubic splines. A trending curve capable of predicting the damage progression can be determined, and it allows the extrapolation to future structural conditions based on some assumptions. The data sets of a benchmark involving a three-story building structure are investigated to illustrate the proposed methodology. The extrapolated coefficients in the most severe condition are implemented to identify an extrapolated AR model, and the results are encouraging by adequately reproducing the structure's future behavior if the damage is initially detected and not repaired immediately.
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