A New Hybrid Approach of Clustering Based Probabilistic Decision Tree to Forecast Wind Power on Large Scales

The wind power forecasting plays a vital role in renewable energy production. Due to the dynamic and uncertain behavior of wind, it is really hard to catch the actual features of wind for accurate forecasting measures. The patchy and instability of wind leading to the assortment of training samples have a main influence on the forecasting accuracy. For this purpose, an accurate forecasting method is needed. This paper proposed a new hybrid approach of clustering based probabilistic decision tree to forecast wind power efficiently. The collected data is screened for noisy information and selected those variables which mainly contribute in accurate predictions. Then, the wind data is normalized using mean and standard deviation to extract playing level fields for each feature. Based on the similarity of the data behavior, the K-means clustering algorithm is applied to classify the samples into different groups which contain the historical wind data. Further, the Naive Bayes (NB) tree is proposed to extract probabilities for each feature in the clusters. The NB tree is a hybrid model of C4.5 and NB methods that successfully applied on three big real-world wind datasets (hourly, monthly, yearly) collected from National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). The forecasting accuracy exposed that the proposed method could forecast an accurate wind power from hours to years' data. Comprehensive comparisons are made of the proposed method with the most popular state of the art techniques which show that this method provides more accurate prediction results.

Automated summary

Wind power forecasting is crucial for renewable energy production due to the dynamic and uncertain behavior of wind. This paper introduces a new hybrid approach to efficiently predict wind power by addressing the challenges of wind dynamics and variability.