A realistic pathway for coal-fired power in China from 2020 to 2030

While long-term coal transition is clear, the short and medium-term coal-fired power development in China is more uncertain. Therefore, the development pathways of coal-fired power in China after 2020 were widely discussed. Based on the unit-based coal-fired power data, this paper explored the optimized pathway of China's coal-fired power from 2020 to 2030 at the provincial level. Considering national development goals, interprovincial transmissions, and other physical limits in power planning, our model integrated the supply and demand side to assess a reasonable capacity of coal-fired power in 2030. The results and robust analysis indicate that China's coal-fired power capacity in 2030 may stay around 1100 GW. Furthermore, future policies and regulations to deliver this pathway are also proposed. (C) 2020 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.