SARS-CoV-2 in Italy: Population Density Correlates with Morbidity and Mortality

Since the beginning of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) epidemic in China, elderly and multimorbid subjects showed a higher mortality rate. However, other factors could influence the mortality and spread of contagion, such as population density. Archival research based on the Italian data stratified by region was performed to quantify the association between population density, aging index, number of positive cases, number of deaths, case-fatality rate, and medical equipment (gloves, masks, and ventilators). Results showed a significant positive linear correlation between population density and cases, deaths, and case-fatality rate. No correlation with the aging index was observed. Furthermore, we found a significant positive correlation between the number of medical supplies and population density, cases, and deaths. However, the medical supplies did not show any correlation with the case-fatality rate. Thus, these findings suggest that the population density and the lack of medical equipment are key factors explaining the morbidity and mortality of COVID-19 in Italy.

Automated summary

Analysis of Italian data revealed significant positive linear correlations between population density and COVID-19 cases, deaths, and case-fatality rate. Medical supplies also showed a positive correlation with population density, cases, and deaths, but not with the case-fatality rate.