Performance of the IPCC AR6 models in simulating the relation of the western North Pacific subtropical high to the spring northern tropical Atlantic SST

This study examines the relationship between the spring northern tropical Atlantic (NTA) sea surface temperature (SST) and its following summer western North Pacific subtropical high (WNPSH) in historical simulations of 20 coupled models of the IPCC AR6. These models well simulate the spring NTA SST, as well as the WNPSH-related atmospheric and precipitation anomalies over the Asian monsoon region. Ensemble mean of these models reproduces the observed relation and processes linking the spring NTA SST to the summer WNPSH. In the ensemble mean, spring NTA SST warming persists to the following summer, and induces an anomalous Walker circulation with an ascent over the tropical Atlantic and a descent over the tropical central Pacific. The associated precipitation decrease over the tropical central Pacific induces an anomalous low-level anticyclone over the WNP via a Rossby wave atmospheric response. Meanwhile, spring NTA SST warming leads to easterly wind anomalies over the Indian Ocean (IO) via a Kelvin wave atmospheric response and causes SST warming there via reducing wind speeds. Then, the precipitation anomalies induced by the IO SST warming result in an enhancement of the WNPSH. There exists a large diversity of the NTA SST-WNPSH relationship among the models. This diversity is related to the difference in the climatological mean IO precipitation. The models with large mean IO precipitation provide a favourable condition for the IO SST warming to bring large local precipitation anomalies and trigger strong easterly wind anomalies over the tropical WNP, and thus exert a strong impact on the WNPSH.

Automated summary

This study investigates the connection between spring northern tropical Atlantic (NTA) sea surface temperature (SST) and following summer western North Pacific subtropical high (WNPSH) across 20 coupled models of the IPCC AR6. The models show a diverse relationship between NTA SST and WNPSH, with differences attributed to variations in the climatological mean Indian Ocean (IO) precipitation. Models with large mean IO precipitation tend to provide a conducive environment for IO SST warming, resulting in significant impacts on the WNPSH.