Meeting Paris agreement objectives will temper seabird winter distribution shifts in the North Atlantic Ocean

We explored the implications of reaching the Paris Agreement Objective of limiting global warming to <2 degrees C for the future winter distribution of the North Atlantic seabird community. We predicted and quantified current and future winter habitats of five North Atlantic Ocean seabird species (Alle alle, Fratercula arctica, Uria aalge, Uria lomvia and Rissa tridactyla) using tracking data for similar to 1500 individuals through resource selection functions based on mechanistic modeling of seabird energy requirements, and a dynamic bioclimate envelope model of seabird prey. Future winter distributions were predicted to shift with climate change, especially when global warming exceed 2 degrees C under a no mitigation scenario, modifying seabird wintering hotspots in the North Atlantic Ocean. Our findings suggest that meeting Paris agreement objectives will limit changes in seabird selected habitat location and size in the North Atlantic Ocean during the 21st century. We thereby provide key information for the design of adaptive marine-protected areas in a changing ocean.

Automated summary

By analyzing tracking data of five North Atlantic seabird species, researchers predicted shifts in winter habitats under different climate change scenarios. Results suggest that meeting the Paris Agreement objectives will help limit changes in seabird habitats, providing valuable information for the design of adaptive marine-protected areas.