Journal
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
Volume 47, Issue 22, Pages -Publisher
AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION
DOI: 10.1029/2020GL089237
Keywords
ice shelf basal melting; regime shift; Antarctic slope front
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Funding
- Centre for Climate Dynamics at the Bjerknes Centre
- Norwegian Research council [267660, 231549, 229764, 247699]
- NERC [bas0100033] Funding Source: UKRI
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Understanding changes in Antarctic ice shelf basal melting is a major challenge for predicting future sea level. Currently, warm Circumpolar Deep Water surrounding Antarctica has limited access to the Weddell Sea continental shelf; consequently, melt rates at Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf are low. However, large-scale model projections suggest that changes to the Antarctic Slope Front and the coastal circulation may enhance warm inflows within this century. We use a regional high-resolution ice shelf cavity and ocean circulation model to explore forcing changes that may trigger this regime shift. Our results suggest two necessary conditions for supporting a sustained warm inflow into the Filchner Ice Shelf cavity: (i) an extreme relaxation of the Antarctic Slope Front density gradient and (ii) substantial freshening of the dense shelf water. We also find that the on-shelf transport over the western Weddell Sea shelf is sensitive to the Filchner Trough overflow characteristics.
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