Harvesting strategies during a forecasted decline in the Newfoundland and Labrador snow crab fishery

A predicted and communicated decline in the Newfoundland and Labrador snow crab (Chionoecetes opilio) resource, the basis of the world's largest snow crab fishery for two decades, has come to fruition. Given considerable lead time, this scenario creates an interesting dynamic to investigate how crab harvesters may have formed anticipatory behavioural responses to mitigate against the decline. In this analysis, economic, stock status, and vessel activity indicators are examined along with spatiotemporal fishing patterns before, during, and after the decline to assess harvester behaviour and fleet dynamics. We hypothesize that behaviours indicative of increased competition and a race to fish would emerge in response to the forecasted decline. Contrary to our expectations, we find no evidence of earlier or more rapid fishing, nor broader or more intense fishing patterns. Increased gear soak times were the most common adaptive response employed by harvesters, which were marginally successful in mitigating against declining catch rates and reducing discards. The majority of harvesters appeared to prosecute the fishery in a similar fashion as they historically had, and simply accepted reducing catch rates on known fishing grounds. Some historically dominant fishing grounds even became abandoned with little to no apparent adaptive responses by harvesters. Specific reasons for the general lack of behavioural adaptations to the forecasted fishery decline are unknown but are associated with an Individual Quota system, favourable product prices that have more than offset revenue losses from reduced catch, and small-scale management areas that may have rendered little or no capacity to develop adaptive strategies.