Journal
FISH AND FISHERIES
Volume 22, Issue 3, Pages 503-517Publisher
WILEY
DOI: 10.1111/faf.12530
Keywords
climate change; distribution models; Oncorhynchus; spatio‐ temporal models; species range shifts; state‐ space models
Categories
Funding
- National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
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Species that migrate long distances or between distinct habitats, such as anadromous or catadromous fish, are particularly at risk in a changing world due to the consequences of climate change in each habitat. Studies have shown that different stocks of these species have fundamentally different ocean distributions and respond differently to historical ocean temperature variations.
Species that migrate long distances or between distinct habitats- for example, anadromous or catadromous fish-experience the consequences of climate change in each habitat and are therefore particularly at risk in a changing world. Studies of anadromous species often focus on freshwater despite the ocean's disproportionate influence on survival and growth. To understand a prominent anadromous species' response to ocean climate, we use a new spatio-temporal model jointly estimating the ocean distribution of all major fall-run Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha, Salmonidae) stocks from California to British Columbia over 40 years. We model hundreds of millions of tagged individuals, finding that different stocks have fundamentally different ocean distributions, distinct associations with sea surface temperature (SST), and contrasting distributional responses to historical ocean SST variation. We show species-level estimates of ocean distribution that ignore among-stock variation will lead to errant predictions of spatial distribution. Using future (2030-2090) SST projections to model focal stocks of fisheries importance we predict substantial ocean redistribution in response to SST change. Predicted aggregate distributional changes do not follow a simple, poleward shift. Instead, we predict net movement into some ocean regions (British Columbia, central California) but net movement out of others (northern California, Washington). Distribution shifts have implications for both major fisheries and marine mammal predators of Chinook salmon. We focus on the consequences of spatial changes in ocean distribution, but our approach provides a general structure to link marine and freshwater components of anadromous species under climate change.
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