4.7 Article

Subsea permafrost carbon stocks and climate change sensitivity estimated by expert assessment

Journal

ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
Volume 15, Issue 12, Pages -

Publisher

IOP PUBLISHING LTD
DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/abcc29

Keywords

subsea permafrost; carbon stocks; climate change; expert assessment

Funding

  1. Brigham Young University Graduate Studies
  2. Permafrost Carbon Network through the National Science Foundation (NSF) Study of Environmental Arctic Change (SEARCH) [1331083]
  3. NSF [1916565]
  4. National Key R&D Program of China [2019YFA0607003]
  5. Russian Science Foundation [19-77-10065, 19-7710066]
  6. Russian Foundation for Basic Research [18-05-60004]
  7. Swedish Science Foundation (VR) [201804350]
  8. Laboratory Directed Research and Development program at Sandia National Laboratories [DE-NA-0003525]
  9. Russian Science Foundation [19-77-10065] Funding Source: Russian Science Foundation
  10. Directorate For Geosciences
  11. Office of Polar Programs (OPP) [1331083, 1916565] Funding Source: National Science Foundation

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The continental shelves of the Arctic Ocean and surrounding seas contain large stocks of organic matter (OM) and methane (CH4), representing a potential ecosystem feedback to climate change not included in international climate agreements. We performed a structured expert assessment with 25 permafrost researchers to combine quantitative estimates of the stocks and sensitivity of organic carbon in the subsea permafrost domain (i.e. unglaciated portions of the continental shelves exposed during the last glacial period). Experts estimated that the subsea permafrost domain contains similar to 560 gigatons carbon (GtC; 170-740, 90% confidence interval) in OM and 45 GtC (10-110) in CH4. Current fluxes of CH4 and carbon dioxide (CO2) to the water column were estimated at 18 (2-34) and 38 (13-110) megatons C yr(-1), respectively. Under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) RCP8.5, the subsea permafrost domain could release 43 Gt CO2-equivalent (CO(2)e) by 2100 (14-110) and 190 Gt CO(2)e by 2300 (45-590), with similar to 30% fewer emissions under RCP2.6. The range of uncertainty demonstrates a serious knowledge gap but provides initial estimates of the magnitude and timing of the subsea permafrost climate feedback.

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