Development and validation of a new clinical staging system to predict survival for esophageal squamous cell carcinoma patients: Application of the nomogram

Introduction: Survival of patients with the same clinical stage varies widely and effective tools to evaluate the prognosis utilizing clinical staging information is lacking. This study aimed to develop a clinical nomogram for predicting survival of patients with Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma (ESCC). Materials and methods: On the basis of data extracted from the SEER database (training cohort, n = 3375), we identified and integrated significant prognostic factors for nomogram development and internal validation. The model was then subjected to external validation with a separate dataset obtained from Jinling Hospital of Nanjing Medical University (validation cohort, n =1187). The predictive accuracy and discriminative ability of the nomogram were determined by concordance index (C-index), Akaike information criterion (AIC) and calibration curves. And risk group stratification was performed basing on the nomogram scores. Results: On multivariable analysis of the training cohort, seven independent prognostic factors were identified and included into the nomogram. Calibration curves presented good consistency between the nomogram prediction and actual observation for 1-, 3-, and 5-year OS. The AIC value of the nomogram was lower than that of the 8th edition American Joint Committee on Cancer TNM (AJCC) staging system, whereas the C-index of the nomogram was significantly higher than that of the AJCC staging system. The risk groups stratified by CART allowed significant distinction between survival curves within respective clinical TNM categories. Conclusions: The risk stratification system presented better discriminative ability for survival prediction than current clinical staging system and might help clinicians in decision making. (c) 2020 Elsevier Ltd, BASO -The Association for Cancer Surgery, and the European Society of Surgical Oncology. All rights reserved.

Automated summary

A clinical nomogram was developed to predict survival of patients with Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma, showing higher predictive accuracy and discriminative ability compared to current clinical staging system. Risk stratification system based on the nomogram scores allowed significant distinction between survival curves within different clinical TNM categories, which might assist clinicians in decision making. The study results suggest that the nomogram could be a better tool for survival prediction in ESCC patients.