Journal
CHAOS SOLITONS & FRACTALS
Volume 142, Issue -, Pages -Publisher
PERGAMON-ELSEVIER SCIENCE LTD
DOI: 10.1016/j.chaos.2020.110431
Keywords
COVID-19; SEIR model; Easing restrictions; Spikes of infections; Control of infection spread
Categories
Funding
- Brazilian government agency: CNPq
- Brazilian government agency: CAPES
- Brazilian government agency: Fundacao Araucaria
- Brazilian government agency: FAPESP [2015/07311, 2018/03211-6]
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Mathematical models and computational simulations are essential tools during infectious disease outbreaks to characterize epidemic dynamics and design public health policies. The COVID-19 pandemic may face scenarios characterized by high spikes of infections due to easing restrictions, but these undesirable scenarios could be avoided by a control strategy of successive partial easing restrictions.
During an infectious disease outbreak, mathematical models and computational simulations are essential tools to characterize the epidemic dynamics and aid in design public health policies. Using these tools, we provide an overview of the possible scenarios for the COVID-19 pandemic in the phase of easing restrictions used to reopen the economy and society. To investigate the dynamics of this outbreak, we consider a deterministic compartmental model (SEIR model) with an additional parameter to simulate the restrictions. In general, as a consequence of easing restrictions, we obtain scenarios characterized by high spikes of infections indicating significant acceleration of the spreading disease. Finally, we show how such undesirable scenarios could be avoided by a control strategy of successive partial easing restrictions, namely, we tailor a successive sequence of the additional parameter to prevent spikes in phases of low rate of transmissibility. (C) 2020 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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