Generalizing the Inversion-Based PSHA Source Model for an Interconnected Fault System

This article represents a step toward generalizing and simplifying the procedure for constructing an inversion-based seismic hazard source model for an interconnected fault system, including the specification of adjustable segmentation constraints. A very simple example is used to maximize understandability and to counter the notion that an inversion approach is only applicable when an abundance of data is available. Also exemplified is how to construct a range of models to adequately represent epistemic uncertainties (which should be a high priority in any hazard assessment). Opportunity is also taken to address common concerns and misunderstandings associated with the third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, including the seemingly disproportionate number of large-magnitude events, and how well hazard is resolved given the overall problem is very underdetermined. However, the main aim of this article is to provide a general protocol for constructing such models.

Automated summary

This article introduces a procedure for constructing seismic hazard source models for interconnected fault systems with adjustable segmentation constraints, emphasizing the importance of generalization, simplification, and representing epistemic uncertainties. It addresses common concerns and misunderstandings associated with the third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, and provides a general protocol for constructing such models.