Assessment of the potential storm tide inundation hazard under climate change: case studies of Southeast China coast

Four typical cases of storm tide inundation at one of the typical storm surge prone areas in China and worldwide, i.e. Southeast China coast, are presented to demostrate the impact of climate change. It is relied on the statistical trend analysis of tropical cyclone intensification (TCI) and sea level rise (SLR) considering temporally non-stationary and spatially non-uniform effects, numerical analysis taking into account the tide-surge-wave coupling effect and GIS-based analysis for inundation evaluation. The results show that the high sea surface elevation tends to occur in the bays and around the estuaries. The maximal sea surface elevations of the worst situation at present without considering TCI and SLR (i.e. scenario S2) are 6.06 m, 5.82 m and 5.67 m around Aojiang, Feiyunjiang and Oujiang river estuaries, respectively. Whereas, the maximal sea surface elevations for the three estuaries would increase to 7.02 m, 6.67 m and 6.44 m, respectively, when the non-stationary extreme wind speed of 100-year recurrence period and SLR equivalent to the situation of 2100s (i.e. scenario S4) are taking into account. The potential inundation area of scenario S4 would expand by 108% to about 798 km(2) compared with scenario S2. In addition, the remotely sensed maps and inundation durations of the hardest hit regions are provided, which will aid the prevention and mitigation of storm tide inundation hazard and future coastal management there. Graphic abstract

Automated summary

The study demonstrates the impact of climate change on storm tide inundation in Southeast China coast. Results show that high sea surface elevations tend to occur in bays and estuaries. The maximal sea surface elevations increase significantly when non-stationary extreme wind speed and sea level rise are taken into account. The potential inundation area expands by 108% in scenario S4 compared to scenario S2.