Exploring climate variability and its impact on drought occurrence: Evidence from Godavari Middle sub-basin, India

Godavari middle sub-basin covering one district of Telangana state and eleven districts of Maharashtra state in India has been experiencing severe drought due to climate variability over the past several decades. Lying in the rain shadow zone of Western Ghats (mountain pass), it receives scant rainfall. Therefore, monitoring and assessing of drought is essential for lessening the impact on communities' livelihood and environment. We utilized forty grid points data from global weather data for SWAT portal during 1979-2013 for assessing drought conditions. Trends in important meteorological variables namely precipitation, temperature, wind speed, solar radiation and relative humidity were analyzed to examine the climate variability in the study area. Standardized precipitation index (SPI) was determined for one, three, six and twelve month drought. Mann Kendall test and Sen's slope were used to analyze trend in precipitation.Multiple linear regression was performed to establish relationship between meteorological variables and drought. Interpolation method of geographical information system (GIS) was utilized for spatial analyses of climate variability, drought and trend in precipitation in the study area. Findings revealed that watersheds located in south-western part of the sub-basin experienced decreasing trend in precipitation and consequent frequent droughts. The study further reveals that the meteorological variables have more impact on short-term drought.