Impacts of African Swine Fever on Pigmeat Markets in Europe

African Swine Fever (ASF) is a highly contagious animal disease which can cause disruptions in the international trade of pigs and products derived from pigs. During 2014-2019 ASF was introduced into several member states in the European Union (EU), including the Baltic states and Poland (2014), Czech Republic and Romania (2017), Belgium, Bulgaria and Hungary (2018), and Slovakia (2019). The objective of this study was to analyze how the ASF epidemic has contributed to the production, export, and prices of pigmeat and to the national pig inventory (number of pigs) in 11 EU member states. The data included country-level statistics on the pig markets and ASF outbreaks observed during 2010-2019. The data were first analyzed descriptively. Following this, a system of four equations was specified and estimated by using seemingly unrelated regression method. The results indicated that the consequences of ASF to the pigmeat markets are complex and may differ by country. They suggest that an ASF outbreak can reduce the production of pigmeat, export quantities and the national pig inventory in the short and medium term. On average, those new cases of ASF reduced the exports of pigmeat by close to 15% and the production quantity by more than 4% in the year after the cases had occurred, and the national pig inventory by 3-4% both in the current and the next year. However, only indirect effects on pigmeat prices were observed.