A Medium-Term Study of Molise Coast Evolution Based on the One-Line Equation and Equivalent Wave Concept

The Molise region (southern Italy) fronts the Adriatic Sea for nearly 36 km and has been suffering from erosion since the mid-20th century. In this article, an in-depth analysis has been conducted in the time-frame 2004-2016, with the purpose of discussing the most recent shoreline evolution trends and individuating the climate forcings that best correlate with them. The results of the study show that an intense erosion process took place between 2011 and 2016, both at the northern and southern parts of the coast. This shoreline retreat is at a large extent a downdrift effect of hard protection systems. Both the direct observation of the coast and numerical simulations, performed with the software GENESIS, indicate that the shoreline response is significantly influenced by wave attacks from approximately 10 degrees N; however, the bimodality that characterizes the Molise coast wave climate may have played an important role in the beach dynamics, especially where structural systems alternate to unprotected shore segments.