Independent association of meteorological characteristics with initial spread of Covid-19 in India

Whether weather plays a part in the transmissibility of the novel Coronavirus Disease-19 (COVID-19) is still not established. We tested the hypothesis that meteorological factors (air temperature, relative humidity, air pressure, wind speed and rainfall) are independently associated with transmissibility of COVID-19 quantified using the basic reproduction rate (R-0). We used publicly available datasets on daily COVID-19 case counts (total n = 108,308), three-hourly meteorological data and community mobility data over a three-month period. Estimated R-0 varied between 1.15 and 1.28. Mean daily air temperature (inversely), wind speed (positively) and countrywide lockdown (inversely) were significantly associated with time dependent R-0, but the contribution of countrywide lockdown to variability in R-0 was over three times stronger as compared to that of temperature and wind speed combined. Thus, abating temperatures and easing lockdown may concur with increased transmissibility of COVID-19 in India. (C) 2020 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Automated summary

The study found that daily air temperature, wind speed, and nationwide lockdown measures are significantly associated with the basic reproduction rate (R-0) of COVID-19. The contribution of nationwide lockdown to the variability in R-0 is over three times stronger as compared to that of temperature and wind speed combined. Therefore, in India, rising temperatures and easing lockdown measures may lead to increased transmissibility of COVID-19.