Journal
SCIENCE
Volume 369, Issue 6508, Pages 1242-+Publisher
AMER ASSOC ADVANCEMENT SCIENCE
DOI: 10.1126/science.aba9287
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Funding
- FONDECYT [1170017, 1190007]
- ANID PIA/BASAL FB [0002-2014]
- MTA Distinguished Guest Fellowship Programme in Hungary
- National Research, Development and Innovation Office (NKFIH grant) [GINOP-2.3.2-15-2016-00057]
- Bolyai Janos Research Fellowship of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences
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Average and extreme temperatures will increase in the near future, but how such shifts will affect mortality in natural populations is still unclear. We used a dynamic model to predict mortality under variable temperatures on the basis of heat tolerance laboratory measurements. Theoretical lethal temperatures for 11 Drosophila species under different warming conditions were virtually indistinguishable from empirical results. For Drosophila in the field, daily mortality predicted from ambient temperature records accumulate over weeks or months, consistent with observed seasonal fluctuations and population collapse in nature. Our model quantifies temperature-induced mortality in nature, which is crucial to study the effects of global warming on natural populations, and analyses highlight that critical temperatures are unreliable predictors of mortality.
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