Journal
PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
Volume 117, Issue 42, Pages 26151-26157Publisher
NATL ACAD SCIENCES
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2012002117
Keywords
climate; human behavior; disease transmission; hierarchical intervention network; international collaboration
Categories
Funding
- National Research Program of the Ministry of Science and Technology of the People's Republic of China [2016YFA0600104]
- Vanke School of Public Health of Tsinghua University
- Research Council of Norway [312740]
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Emerging evidence suggests a resurgence of COVID-19 in the coming years. It is thus critical to optimize emergency response planning from a broad, integrated perspective. We developed a mathematical model incorporating climate-driven variation in community transmissions and movement-modulated spatial diffusions of COVID-19 into various intervention scenarios. We find that an intensive 8-wk intervention targeting the reduction of local transmissibility and international travel is efficient and effective. Practically, we suggest a tiered implementation of this strategy where interventions are first implemented at locations in what we call the Global Intervention Hub, followed by timely interventions in secondary high-risk locations. We argue that thinking globally, categorizing locations in a hub-and-spoke intervention network, and acting locally, applying interventions at high-risk areas, is a functional strategy to avert the tremendous burden that would otherwise be placed on public health and society.
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