Journal
NATURAL HAZARDS
Volume 104, Issue 3, Pages 2489-2510Publisher
SPRINGER
DOI: 10.1007/s11069-020-04282-4
Keywords
Flood inundation; Climate change; Uncertainty quantification; Probabilistic
Funding
- EPSRC [EP/N030419/1]
- EPSRC [EP/N030419/1, EP/L026538/1] Funding Source: UKRI
Ask authors/readers for more resources
Floods are the most common and widely distributed natural hazard, threatening life and property worldwide. Governments worldwide are facing significant challenges associated with flood hazard, specifically: increasing urbanization; against the background of uncertainty associated with increasing climate variability under climate change. Thus, flood hazard assessments need to consider climate change uncertainties explicitly. This paper explores the role of climate change uncertainty through uncertainty analysis in flood modelling through a probabilistic framework using a Monte Carlo approach and is demonstrated for case study catchment. Different input, structure and parameter uncertainties were investigated to understand how important the role of a non-stationary climate may be on future extreme flood events. Results suggest that inflow uncertainties are the most influential in order to capture the range of uncertainty in inundation extent, more important than hydraulic model parameter uncertainty, and thus, the influence of non-stationarity of climate on inundation extent is critical to capture. Topographic controls are shown to create tipping points in the inundation-flow relationship, and these may be useful and important to quantify for future planning and policy. Full Monte Carlo analysis within the probabilistic framework is computationally expensive, and there is a need to explore more time-efficient strategies which may result in a similar estimate of the full uncertainty. Simple uncertainty quantification techniques such as Latin hypercube sampling approaches were tested to reduce computational burden.
Authors
I am an author on this paper
Click your name to claim this paper and add it to your profile.
Reviews
Recommended
No Data Available