4.1 Article

World population densities: convergence, stability, or divergence?

Journal

MATHEMATICAL POPULATION STUDIES
Volume 29, Issue 1, Pages 17-30

Publisher

TAYLOR & FRANCIS INC
DOI: 10.1080/08898480.2020.1827854

Keywords

Coefficient of variation; population density; relative variance; Taylor's law

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Taylor's law states that the variance of population density is a power function of its mean. The exponent determines the convergence or divergence of the density distribution over time. East Asia, the Pacific, and South Asia have an exponent of 2, indicating a stable distribution. Sub-Saharan Africa has an exponent greater than 2 due to ongoing demographic transition and intense urbanization. Other regions have an exponent lower than 2, indicating completed demographic transition and rural exodus.
Taylor's law states that the variance of population density in a given set of areas is a power function of its mean. When the exponent is equal to 2, the distribution of population densities between areas remains unchanged; when it is less than 2, the distribution converges toward the uniform distribution; when it is greater than 2, the densities become increasingly different from each other over time. The exponent takes the value 2 for East Asia, the Pacific, and South Asia. It takes a value greater than 2 for sub-Saharan Africa because the ongoing demographic transition and intense urbanization are redistributing the population over the territories. The exponent is lower than 2 for the other regions of the world, which have completed their demographic transition and where the rural exodus has been completed.

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