Journal
JOURNAL OF ALLERGY AND CLINICAL IMMUNOLOGY
Volume 147, Issue 1, Pages 99-+Publisher
MOSBY-ELSEVIER
DOI: 10.1016/j.jaci.2020.10.001
Keywords
Endothelial dysfunction; immune activation; biomarkers; COVID-19
Categories
Funding
- Leenaards Foundation
- Foundation of Lausanne University Hospital
- Canadian Institutes of Health Research (Foundation) [FDN-148439]
- CIHR COVID-19 grant [447092, VR3-172649]
- National Research Council of Canada Industrial Research Assistance Program (NRC-IRAP) [947684]
- GeoSentinel Foundation
- FAST grants Thistledown Foundation
- Slaight Family Foundation
- Tesari Foundation
- Canada Research Chair program
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This study found that specific biomarkers in the concentrations at clinical presentation in the emergency department of COVID-19 patients had good accuracy in predicting 30-day intubation/mortality and oxygen requirement, serving as potential early triage tools for identifying patients with adverse outcomes.
Background: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has led to surges of patients presenting to emergency departments (EDs) and potentially overwhelming health systems. Objective: We sought to assess the predictive accuracy of host biomarkers at clinical presentation to the ED for adverse outcome. Methods: Prospective observational study of PCR-confirmed COVID-19 patients in the ED of a Swiss hospital. Concentrations of inflammatory and endothelial dysfunction biomarkers were determined at clinical presentation. We evaluated the accuracy of clinical signs and these biomarkers in predicting 30-day intubation/mortality, and oxygen requirement by calculating the area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve and by classification and regression tree analysis. Results: Of 76 included patients with COVID-19, 24 were outpatients or hospitalized without oxygen requirement, 35 hospitalized with oxygen requirement, and 17 intubated/died. We found that soluble triggering receptor expressed on myeloid cells had the best prognostic accuracy for 30-day intubation/mortality (area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve, 0.86; 95% CI, 0.77-0.95) and IL-6 measured at presentation to the ED had the best accuracy for 30-day oxygen requirement (area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve, 0.84; 95% CI, 0.74-0.94). An algorithm based on respiratory rate and sTREM-1 predicted 30-day intubation/mortality with 94% sensitivity and 0.1 negative likelihood ratio. An IL-6-based algorithm had 98% sensitivity and 0.04 negative likelihood ratio for 30-day oxygen requirement. Conclusions: sTREM-1 and IL-6 concentrations in COVID-19 in the ED have good predictive accuracy for intubation/ mortality and oxygen requirement. sTREM-1- and IL-6-based algorithms are highly sensitive to identify patients with adverse outcome and could serve as early triage tools.
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