Is a delay a disaster? economic impacts of the delay of the california dungeness crab fishery due to a harmful algal bloom

During the 2015/2016 West Coast Dungeness crab (Metacarcinus magister) season, the opening of the fishery in California was delayed almost five months due to high and persistent concentrations of domoic acid in crab following a massive coast-wide Pseudo-nitzschia australis (P. australis) bloom. A hurdle model was used to estimate lost revenues to fishers due to the delay in the opening of the 2015/2016 season, and an input-output model is used to calculate resulting losses in income and employment statewide. The analysis suggests that Dungeness crab revenue was decreased as a result of the season delay, but the reduction was less than was initially estimated when a request for disaster assistance was submitted. However, the analysis also shows that fishers lost out on revenue from other fisheries equal in magnitude to the reduction in crab revenues because the delayed opening led fishers to reduce effort in non-crab fisheries. The research demonstrates the need to consider impacts beyond the revenue losses to directly affected fisheries. Potential management and industry responses that might mitigate future losses if future large scale P. australis blooms threaten fishery delays or closures are discussed along with the research needed to determine whether and how to implement these strategies.