Journal
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
Volume 47, Issue 18, Pages -Publisher
AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION
DOI: 10.1029/2020GL089723
Keywords
rainfall extremes; precipitation temperature relationship; Clausius-Clapeyron; intensity; intermittency; moisture
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Funding
- University of Melbourne McKenzie Postdoctoral Fellowships Program
- Australian Research Council (ARC) [DP200101326]
- Hydro Tasmania
- Melbourne Water
- Murray-Darling Basin Authority
- Queensland Department of Natural Resources Mines and Energy
- Seqwater
- Snowy Hydro
- Sunwater
- West Australian Water Corporation
- WaterNSW
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Extreme precipitation events are intensifying with increasing temperatures. However, observed extreme precipitation-temperature sensitivities have been found to vary significantly across the globe. Here we show that negative sensitivities found in previous studies are the result of limited consideration of within-day temperature variations due to precipitation. We find that short-duration extreme precipitation can be better described by subdaily atmospheric conditions before the start of storm events, resulting in positive sensitivities with increased consistency with the Clausius-Clapeyron relation across a wide range of climatic regions. Contrary to previous studies that advocate that dew point temperature drives precipitation, dry-bulb temperature is found to be a sufficient descriptor of precipitation variability. We argue that analysis methods for estimating extreme precipitation-temperature sensitivities should account for the strong and prolonged cooling effect of intense precipitation, as well as for the intermittent nature of precipitation.
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