Journal
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
Volume 47, Issue 16, Pages -Publisher
AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION
DOI: 10.1029/2020GL087775
Keywords
coupling; interseismic; Anatolia; earthquake; Bayesian; inversion
Categories
Funding
- European Space Agency [6703]
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The North Anatolian Fault (NAF) has produced numerous major earthquakes. After decades of quiescence, theM(w)6.8 Elazig earthquake (24 January 2020) has recently reminded us that the East Anatolian Fault (EAF) is also capable of producing significant earthquakes. To better estimate the seismic hazard associated with these two faults, we jointly invert interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) and GPS data to image the spatial distribution of interseismic coupling along the eastern part of both the NAF and EAF. We perform the inversion in a Bayesian framework, enabling to estimate uncertainties on both long-term relative plate motion and coupling. We find that coupling is high and deep (0-20 km) on the NAF and heterogeneous and superficial (0-5 km) on the EAF. Our model predicts that the Elazig earthquake released between 200 and 250 years of accumulated moment, suggesting a bicentennial recurrence time.
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