Long-Term Prognostic Predictors of Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma Potentially Indicated for Endoscopic Submucosal Dissection

Introduction: Patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) have various comorbidities. Thus, it is necessary to determine the appropriateness of performing treatment based on the patient's general condition. Aim: This study aimed to clarify the prognostic predictors of ESCC indicated for endoscopic submucosal dissection (ESD). Methods: This retrospective study enrolled 241 patients with superficial ESCC endoscopically diagnosed as ESD-indicated lesions at the Nagoya University Hospital between January 2007 and December 2017. We evaluated the 3- and 5-year overall survival (OS) rates and prognostic predictors, such as the Prognostic Nutritional Index (PNI), Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI), Psoas Muscle Index, and Controlling Nutritional Status score. Furthermore, we created a score-based classification using the prognostic predictors identified by multivariate analysis, and the 3- and 5-year OS rates were compared among the calculated scores. Results: In the multivariate analysis, PNI < 45 (hazard ratio [HR]: 2.39; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.28-4.46; p = 0.006) and CCI >= 3 (HR: 4.42; 95% CI: 2.40-8.12; p < 0.001) were significantly associated with the OS. Based on the HR, 0 and 1 were assigned to PNI and 0, 2, and 4 were assigned to CCI, and the score classification of 0-5 points was created. The 3- and 5-year OS rates in patients with a score 3 were significantly higher than in those with scores 4 and 5. As a result of scoring, the prognosis was stratified; the 3- and 5-year OS rates in patients with scores 4 and 5, that is, CCI >= 6, were clearly low, at approximately 10%. Conclusions: CCI and PNI can be prognostic predictors of patients with superficial ESCC indicated for ESD. Observation without ESD might be an acceptable strategy among patients with CCI >= 6.

Automated summary

The study investigated prognostic predictors for patients with superficial ESCC indicated for ESD, identifying CCI and PNI as significant predictors. By assigning scores, the study stratified patient prognosis, indicating that patients with CCI >= 6 may be candidates for observation without ESD.