Dynamic committee machine with fuzzy-c-means clustering for total organic carbon content prediction from wireline logs

The total organic carbon (TOC) content is of great significance to reflect the hydrocarbon-generation potential in shale reservoirs. The well logs were always used to predict the TOC content, but some linear regression methods do not match well with complex data. The neural network method can improve prediction accuracy, but it always generates unstable prediction models. A static committee machine can reduce errors and uncertainties by combining multiple learners, but the weight of integrating learners is difficult to determine. Therefore, a dynamic committee machine with fuzzy-c-means clustering (DCMF) was proposed to predict the TOC content. Experts in the DCMF include Elman neural network, extreme learning machine, and generalized regression neural network. The fuzzy-c-means clustering algorithm was used as the gate network to perform subtasks decomposition and weights calculation based on input data. The subtasks were used to train more adaptive TOC content prediction models, and the weights were transferred to the combiner to integrate all experts' outputs into final results. The DCMF was applied in two wells located in the Jiumenchong formation in the Qiannan depression, China. The TOC prediction results using the DCMF method are more accurate than the linear regression method, three individual intelligent algorithms, and the static committee machine. The DCMF also provides a new method for weight calculation by mining potential information of input data.

Automated summary

The study proposed a dynamic committee machine with fuzzy-c-means clustering (DCMF) to predict the total organic carbon (TOC) content in shale reservoirs. DCMF utilizes multiple experts and subtasks decomposition to improve prediction accuracy and model performance.