Journal
CHAOS SOLITONS & FRACTALS
Volume 139, Issue -, Pages -Publisher
PERGAMON-ELSEVIER SCIENCE LTD
DOI: 10.1016/j.chaos.2020.110014
Keywords
SARS-CoV-2; Pandemic; System identification
Categories
Funding
- Ministry of Human Resource Development [MHRD/2017PHAELE006/009]
- New Delhi, India
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In this manuscript, system modeling and identification techniques are applied in developing a prognostic yet deterministic model to forecast the spread of COVID-19 in India. The model is verified with the historical data and a forecast of the spread for 30-days is presented in the 10 most affected states of India. The major results suggest that our model can very well capture the disease variations with high accuracy. The results also show a steep rise in the total cumulative cases and deaths in the coming weeks. (C) 2020 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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