Hydrological modeling of three rivers under Mediterranean climate in Chile, Greece, and Morocco: study of high flow trends by indicator calculation

The study of the influence of climate change on the evolution of floods in areas under the influence of a Mediterranean climate is very important. This work aims to provide new analytical elements to decision-makers in flood management and forecasting in three Mediterranean catchments (Lonquen, Evrotas, and Azzaba), in order to better understand their hydrological behavior and to quantify the flow and its vulnerability to climate change. A semi-distributed conceptual model (HBV-A model) was used to simulate flows with a daily time step. The model results (simulated flows) were used to examine the evolution of high flows using two different approaches (linear regressions and statistical test). The Chilean and the Greece catchments show a decrease in flooding. However, the Moroccan catchment reacts differently, since a positive trend in high flows is observed. The overall results confirm the influence of climate change on the rainfall/runoff relationship.