Prediction of Maximum Flood Inundation Extents With Resilient Backpropagation Neural Network: Case Study of Kulmbach

In many countries, floods are the leading natural disaster in terms of damage and losses per year. Early prediction of such events can help prevent some of those losses. Artificial neural networks (ANN) show a strong ability to deal quickly with large amounts of measured data. In this work, we develop an ANN for outputting flood inundation maps based on multiple discharge inputs with a high grid resolution (4 m x 4 m). After testing different neural network training algorithms and network structures, we found resilience backpropagation to perform best. Furthermore, by introducing clustering for preprocessing discharge curves before training, the quality of the prediction could be improved. Synthetic flood events are used for the training and validation of the ANN. Historical events were additionally used for further validation with real data. The results show that the developed ANN is capable of predicting the maximum flood inundation extents. The mean squared error in more than 98 and 86% of the total area is smaller than 0.2 m(2)in the prediction of synthetic events and historical events, respectively.