Upward Expansion of Supra-Glacial Debris Cover in the Hunza Valley, Karakoram, During 1990 ∼ 2019

Supra-glacial debris cover is key to glacier ablation through increasing (thin debris layer) or decreasing (thick debris layer) melt rates, thereby regulating the mass balance of a glacier and its meltwater runoff. The thickening or lateral expansion of supra-glacial debris cover correlates with a reduction of glacier ablation and, consequently, runoff generation, which is also considered to be an influential factor on the rheology and dynamics of a glacierized system. Studies on supra-glacial debris cover have recently attracted wide attention especially for glaciers in the Himalayas and Karakoram, where the glaciers have heterogeneously responded to climate change. In this study, we used 32 images from the Landsat Thematic Mapper, Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus, and Operational Land Imager archive, going back to 1990, which are available on the Google Earth Engine cloud-computing platform, to map the supra-glacial debris cover in the Hunza Valley, Karakoram, Pakistan, based on a band ratio segmentation method (normalized difference snow index [NDSI] < 0.4), Otsu thresholding, and machine learning algorithms. Compared with manual digitization, the random forest (RF) model was found to have the greatest accuracy in identifying supra-glacial debris, with a Kappa coefficient of 0.94 +/- 0.01 and an overall accuracy of 95.5 +/- 0.9%. Overall, the supra-glacial debris cover in the study area showed an increasing trend, and the total area expanded by 8.1-21.3% for various glaciers from 1990 to 2019. The other two methods (Otsu thresholding and NDSI < 0.4) generally overestimated the supra-glacial debris covered area, by 36.3 and 18.8%, respectively, compared to that of the RF model. The supra-glacial debris cover has migrated upward on the glaciers, with intensive variation near the equilibrium-line altitude zone (4,500-5,500 m a.s.l.). The increase in ice or snow avalanche activity at high altitudes may be responsible for this upward expansion of supra-glacial debris cover in the Hunza Valley, which is attributed to the combined effect of temperature decrease and precipitation increase in the study area.