Journal
NATURE HUMAN BEHAVIOUR
Volume 4, Issue 9, Pages 964-+Publisher
NATURE PORTFOLIO
DOI: 10.1038/s41562-020-0931-9
Keywords
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Funding
- NIH/NIAID [AI139761]
- Google Cloud Healthcare and Life Sciences Solutions via the GCP research credits program
- NIH/NIGMS [U54 GM111274]
- McGovern Foundation
- MINECO [FIS201678904-C3-3-P, FIS2017-87519-P]
- Government of Aragon [E36-17R]
- FEDER funds, Spain [E36-17R]
- FEDER funds [FIS2017-87519-P]
- Intesa Sanpaolo Innovation Center
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An agent-based model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission shows that testing, contact tracing and household quarantine could keep new COVID-19 waves under control while allowing the reopening of the economy with minimal social-distancing interventions. While severe social-distancing measures have proven effective in slowing the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, second-wave scenarios are likely to emerge as restrictions are lifted. Here we integrate anonymized, geolocalized mobility data with census and demographic data to build a detailed agent-based model of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission in the Boston metropolitan area. We find that a period of strict social distancing followed by a robust level of testing, contact-tracing and household quarantine could keep the disease within the capacity of the healthcare system while enabling the reopening of economic activities. Our results show that a response system based on enhanced testing and contact tracing can have a major role in relaxing social-distancing interventions in the absence of herd immunity against SARS-CoV-2.
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