Journal
NATURE HUMAN BEHAVIOUR
Volume 4, Issue 7, Pages 746-+Publisher
NATURE PORTFOLIO
DOI: 10.1038/s41562-020-0908-8
Keywords
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Funding
- Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation through the 'Centro de Excelencia Severo Ochoa 2019 2023' Program [CEX2018 000806S]
- Generalitat de Catalunya through the CERCA Program
- ISCIII COVID-19 project [COV20/0014]
- Fundacio Daniel Bravo Andreu
- HELICAL H2020 EU Programme under the Marie Skodowska-Curie grant [813545]
- Marie Curie Actions (MSCA) [813545] Funding Source: Marie Curie Actions (MSCA)
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The lack of effective pharmaceutical interventions for SARS-CoV-2 raises the possibility of COVID-19 recurrence. We explore different post-confinement scenarios by using a stochastic modified SEIR (susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered) model that accounts for the spread of infection during the latent period and also incorporates time-decaying effects due to potential loss of acquired immunity, people's increasing awareness of social distancing and the use of non-pharmaceutical interventions. Our results suggest that lockdowns should remain in place for at least 60 days to prevent epidemic growth, as well as a potentially larger second wave of SARS-CoV-2 cases occurring within months. The best-case scenario should also gradually incorporate workers in a daily proportion at most 50% higher than during the confinement period. We show that decaying immunity and particularly awareness and behaviour have 99% significant effects on both the current wave of infection and on preventing COVID-19 re-emergence. Social distancing and individual non-pharmaceutical interventions could potentially remove the need for lockdowns. Lopez and Rodo explore post-lockdown scenarios by using a stochastic modified SEIR model, showing that lockdowns should last at least 60 days to avoid a second wave of infection. Social distancing, increasing awareness and personal protective behaviours could replace lockdowns.
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